Manifold Creator
Balasar
@Balasar
Markets by Balasar
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office?
$69K184 tradersResolved
99%
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 45% after one year in office?
$50K85 tradersResolved
0%
Will the first presidential debate "matter"?
$39K169 tradersResolved
3%
How many Gaza protesters will protest at the DNC?
$36K73 tradersResolved
—
Will Trump attack one of Elon Musk's companies in the next month?
$35K151 tradersResolved
2%
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 50% after one year in office?
$26K61 tradersResolved
1%
Will Ilhan Omar win re-election to the House in 2024?
$26K57 tradersResolved
98%
Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?
$25K97 tradersResolved
75%
Will steel tariffs last longer than a head of lettuce?
$18K103 tradersResolved
99%
Will Hamas command center market resolve YES?
$15K41 tradersResolved
99%
Trump admin official held in contempt before end of June?
$14K76 tradersResolved
2%
When will the Brown shooter be apprehended, according to police?
$14K17 tradersResolved
—
Will any candidate receive more than 45% of the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election?
$13K35 tradersResolved
99%
How many deportations will the US carry out in FY2025?
$11K21 tradersopen
—
Will student Gaza protests directly result in at least one student death caused by police by August 1st?
$11K59 tradersResolved
1%
Gaza War ceasefire holds until end of year?
$11K91 tradersResolved
97%
Will the US remove its restrictions on allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to target inside Russia by July 1st?
$9K32 tradersResolved
96%
Which Trump opponents will face official DOJ investigations by October 1st, 2025?
$7K22 tradersResolved
—
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
$7K38 tradersopen
73%
Will Trump attack one of Elon Musk's companies by EOY2025?
$7K34 tradersResolved
6%
Conditional on Trump doing the following things, will Trump be impeached in the House and convicted by the Senate?
$6K28 tradersopen
—
If Harris wins, will her approval rating be above 50% after one year in office?
$6K70 tradersResolved
17%
Which of these Trump campaign pledges will come to pass by the end of his second term?
$5K31 tradersopen
—
Will Mahmoud Khalil be deported from the US or leave it due to harassment by the end of 2025?
$5K39 tradersResolved
4%
Supreme Court to require return of wrongly imprisoned Venezuelan migrant Abrego Garcia?
$5K20 tradersResolved
—
US invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029?
$5K17 tradersopen
15%
Will Columbia accede to the government demand to put its ethnic studies departments in receivership by the end of 2025?
$4K13 tradersResolved
96%
Trump retaliates against Norway if denied Nobel Peace Prize?
$4K41 tradersResolved
3%
Will the December 2024 Israeli invasion of Syria involve a permanent land grab?
$4K19 tradersResolved
98%
Gemini 3 exceeds expectations?
$4K41 tradersResolved
36%
Will the NIH indirect cost cap stick?
$3K5 tradersopen
24%
If the Republican candidate for president loses in 2028, will they deny the election result?
$3K35 tradersopen
65%
Will Canada tariffs last until March?
$3K30 tradersResolved
8%
Will the US actually "run" Venezuela?
$3K26 tradersopen
13%
Which countries will assist militarily in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during ongoing hostilities?
$3K35 tradersopen
—
Will Peter Njeim's Canada PM market get resolved by a mod?
$2K21 tradersResolved
1%
National injunctions banned by the Supreme Court?
$2K28 tradersResolved
27%
Does Manifold think that the Trump administration used a language model to set tariff rates?
$2K46 tradersResolved
17%
Will Larian Studios release another Baldur's Gate game by 2033?
$2K30 tradersopen
21%
Which countries or groups will retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs by the end of 2025?
$2K19 tradersResolved
—