Manifold Creator
Bair
@Bair
Markets by Bair
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below X% in 2025 (multiple levels)?
$51K29 tradersResolved
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Will an architecture 100x faster than transformers be unveiled before June 1st, 2023?
$25K60 tradersResolved
2%
Will GPT-5 be able to make original jokes Manifold users consider funny?
$21K126 tradersResolved
1%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below 90% in 2025?
$13K31 tradersResolved
27%
Will GPT-5 like to delve?
$9K106 tradersResolved
14%
When will Boston Dynamics start selling their new Atlas humanoid robot to customers?
$5K16 tradersopen
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What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
$1K15 tradersResolved
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Will Yann LeCun reply to one of Elon's posts on X before Dec 7th?
$9588 tradersResolved
1%
GPT-5 vs Grok-2+: who will be funnier?
$88721 tradersResolved
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Are ANY of these jokes generated by GPT-5 funny?
$0108 tradersResolved
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Which model's jokes are funnier? GPT-5 vs Grok-4
$035 tradersResolved
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