Manifold Creator
Ben J. Smith
@B
Markets by Ben J. Smith
New York State RAISE Act becomes law?
$52K30 tradersResolved
96%
Who will be the British Prime Minister after the next UK general election? (July 4th)
$26K55 tradersResolved
—
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2025?
$18K49 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be the Democratic Party nominee for the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
$14K39 tradersResolved
—
Congress successfully passes a bill into law limiting Trump's tariffs in 2025
$14K39 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024?
$14K47 tradersResolved
—
Will Donald Trump be banned from running for President under the insurrection clause of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
$14K32 tradersResolved
1%
Will Winston Peters or any other NZ First MP be a government minister in 2023?
$13K16 tradersResolved
98%
Which SCOTUS justices will sign an opinion that Trump is barred from running by the insurrection/rebellion clause?
$11K46 tradersResolved
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At least 5% of federal workers accept Trump administration buyout offer by February 6th 2025
$10K56 tradersResolved
5%
Will any part of Canada join the United States by 2030?
$10K24 tradersopen
13%
Will Donald Trump be convicted of felony falsifying business records?
$9K23 tradersResolved
99%
Will at least one judge find that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
$7K31 tradersResolved
99%
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2026?
$6K25 tradersResolved
83%
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
$6K17 tradersopen
4%
Will the person who is next elected US President for the first time be over 70?
$6K33 tradersopen
12%
After the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government?
$5K24 tradersopen
—
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
$5K20 tradersopen
4%
An investigation concludes CIA analysts were paid money to downplay the lab leak theory
$4K26 tradersResolved
13%
Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?
$3K20 tradersopen
83%
Who will be the next Labour prime minister of New Zealand?
$3K17 tradersopen
—
Which party's candidate will become US President after the election in 2028?
$3K38 tradersopen
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The unidentified object shot down by the US over Canada on Saturday 11 February was a Chinese craft
$3K19 tradersResolved
7%
Will fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine by 17 March 2022?
$2K23 tradersResolved
1%
Will a European/EU army be created before 2030?
$2K40 tradersopen
51%
Free & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
$2K16 tradersopen
20%
Will the UK and India sign an FTA by Jan 1 2026?
$2K20 tradersResolved
79%
Will the Brazil 2026 election be found to be un-free and/or un-fair by the Organization of American States?
$2K6 tradersResolved
18%
Will at least one court judgment find that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
$2K15 tradersResolved
95%
Will a European or EU army be created before 2040?
$2K38 tradersopen
65%
Who will succeed Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister of New Zealand?
$2K6 tradersResolved
—
Will fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine by 10 March 2022?
$2K14 tradersResolved
0%
Will Raf Manji (The Opportunities Party candidate) win the Ilam electorate in the 2023 New Zealand general election?
$2K15 tradersResolved
7%
National and Act will need New Zealand First support to form a majority after the specials and Port Waikato by-election
$2K7 tradersResolved
97%
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?
$2K26 tradersopen
26%
Will Manifold Markets ban self-referential questions before 2024?
$2K19 tradersResolved
2%
Will there be a lawsuit over whether Trump can run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
$2K18 tradersResolved
89%
Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?
$1K22 tradersopen
34%
New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori
$1K8 tradersopen
33%
Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
$1K18 tradersopen
52%