Manifold Creator
Austin
@Austin
Markets by Austin
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
$7.0M3,080 tradersResolved
97%
Will Manifund's loan to @MarcusAbramovitch's crypto fund be repaid without incident?
$516K92 tradersResolved
100%
Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?
$482K147 tradersopen
4%
Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?
$444K209 tradersResolved
5%
On what day will our baby be born?
$371K61 tradersResolved
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Will @RachelWeinberg marry me?
$294K223 tradersResolved
85%
What will the URL be for Manifold Politics?
$286K154 tradersResolved
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What will we name our baby?
$135K99 tradersResolved
—
Federal AI preemption provision passes by July 14, 2025?
$123K61 tradersResolved
1%
"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?
$120K153 tradersResolved
3%
How many minifest tickets will we sell?
$119K22 tradersResolved
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When will bake (bun.sh's fullstack framework) first launch?
$97K9 tradersResolved
—
Will I regret investing $150k into Jesse's election trading?
$77K58 tradersResolved
9%
Will my marriage with @RachelWeinberg last 5 years?
$73K154 tradersopen
95%
How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?
$72K22 tradersResolved
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Will Manifold for Charity get accepted to YCombinator W24?
$69K99 tradersResolved
8%
Will I start a coworking or event space in SF?
$66K45 tradersResolved
94%
Will Matt Levine link to Manifold by 2024?
$65K108 tradersResolved
100%
Will Lightcone repay their $300k loan to Manifold on time?
$56K158 tradersResolved
98%
[Manifold May Showcase] Will 25+ users nominate markets?
$52K56 tradersResolved
99%
Will I participate in the def/acc program at Entrepreneur First?
$49K21 tradersResolved
97%
When will our first child be born?
$46K47 tradersResolved
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Will Manifold still be accepting payments through Stripe on March 1st?
$38K88 tradersResolved
99%
Will Manifold be valued at >=$33M at any point in the next year?
$37K76 tradersResolved
1%
Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?
$36K64 tradersopen
—
Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th District?
$34K71 tradersResolved
0%
Will Trump pardon SBF?
$32K114 tradersopen
10%
Will I regret leaving Manifold?
$29K155 tradersResolved
2%
Will our firstborn be a girl?
$26K79 tradersResolved
99%
Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?
$26K52 tradersResolved
8%
Will Multi Binary be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?
$24K98 tradersResolved
80%
Will @MayMeta be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?
$23K56 tradersResolved
2%
What database will this website be using on June 1st?
$23K58 tradersResolved
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Will we get married on Jun 9th, 2023?
$22K61 tradersResolved
99%
Will Manifold receive funding from OpenPhil in 2023?
$21K43 tradersResolved
2%
Will our forecasting workshop get to the Q&A with 15 or more minutes left?
$17K11 tradersResolved
1%
Would it be legal to let accredited investors withdraw mana to USD?
$17K83 tradersResolved
17%
Will the Supreme Court overturn California's pig cage ban in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross?
$16K52 tradersResolved
1%
Which markets will win a free Manifest 2025 ticket for their creator?
$15K12 tradersResolved
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Will any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?
$13K27 tradersopen
43%