Manifold Creator
Arky
@Arky
Markets by Arky
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
$309K580 tradersopen
20%
Will the Houthi Rebels successfully seize another cargo ship in an act of piracy before the end of 2024?
$31K62 tradersResolved
1%
How will Israel respond to Iran's attack? (in the next two weeks)
$30K58 tradersResolved
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Ukraine takes Verbove before November
$28K19 tradersResolved
0%
Will Elon Musk vote for Donald Trump in 2024?
$27K56 tradersResolved
99%
Will Israel release more than 250 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages held by Hamas?
$20K65 tradersResolved
3%
In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?
$14K82 tradersopen
83%
In 2024, will Gallup polling indicate that more than 0.5% of Americans believe AI is the most important problem?
$14K35 tradersResolved
100%
Will more border crossings into Gaza be opened by the end of April?
$11K6 tradersResolved
100%
Will 5 people who made a Manifold account because of the Hard Fork podcast comment on this question?
$11K10 tradersResolved
100%
If Biden is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
$10K57 tradersResolved
29%
Will Trump say "Genocide Joe" before election day?
$7K74 tradersResolved
4%
Who will win big at the first-ever Manifold Derby?
$7K8 tradersResolved
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If Trump is elected, will there be a government shutdown before the 2026 midterms?
$6K45 tradersResolved
99%
If Kamala Harris loses [state] will she win the 2024 presidential election?
$6K21 tradersResolved
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Will data poisoning cause problems for AI image generators in 2024?
$5K29 tradersResolved
3%
Has Biden bottomed? (in the 2024 Democratic nominee market)
$4K12 tradersResolved
0%
Will Kevin O’Leary buy TikTok?
$3K22 tradersResolved
5%
Will there be a US presidential election in 2024?
$3K19 tradersResolved
99%
Will I have made a profit on this market when it closes?
$3K17 tradersResolved
5%
What will Americans say is the most important problem in November 2024?
$3K21 tradersResolved
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Will combat resume in the Gaza Strip before December 7th?
$2K4 tradersResolved
99%
Will a whale go down in a ball of flames before July?
$2K13 tradersResolved
99%
Powell resigns if not re-appointed Fed chair?
$2K15 tradersopen
1%
Which of these religious sects will ban AI before 2025?
$2K45 tradersResolved
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If there is another temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, will Netanyahu’s coalition collapse?
$2K20 tradersResolved
28%
Will a human clone be born before the end of 2035?
$2K32 tradersopen
47%
Will a whale go down in a ball of flames before the end of 2024?
$2K5 tradersResolved
100%
Will a US state officially change their flag by 2025?
$2K9 tradersResolved
99%
Will 5 people who made a Manifold account because of the New York Times article comment on this question?
$2K13 tradersResolved
7%
Will Israel create any new settlements by the end of 2035?
$1K12 tradersResolved
97%
If Kamala Harris wins [state] will she win the 2024 presidential election?
$1K16 tradersResolved
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Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?
$1K50 tradersopen
37%
Which of these words are good choices for the third guess? [Manifold plays Wordle]
$1K12 tradersResolved
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Will there be a major change to the US political system by the end of 2035?
$1K22 tradersopen
72%
Will Israel and Hezbollah agree to a plan that ends military operations against each other before the end of March?
$9237 tradersResolved
2%
Will Ukraine establish a 20+ km bridgehead across the Dnipro by the end of 2024?
$7859 tradersResolved
8%
Which word should be chosen first? [Manifold plays Wordle]
$7579 tradersResolved
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What is the pre-war population of the largest settlement that changes hands between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
$6955 tradersResolved
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Which of these words are good choices for the second guess? [Manifold plays Wordle]
$6579 tradersResolved
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