Manifold Creator
Anthem
@Anthem
Markets by Anthem
Which coalition will form the next German government after the 2025 German election?
$49K46 tradersResolved
—
What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?
$47K91 tradersResolved
—
What will happen during Claude Opus 4.6 Plays Pokemon?
$40K73 tradersResolved
—
How many electoral college votes will the Democratic Party nominee get in 2024? (Cumulative Market)
$15K50 tradersResolved
—
What will happen during Claude Opus 4.7 Plays Pokemon?
$15K37 tradersopen
—
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in the next UK general election?
$12K32 tradersResolved
—
Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy before the end of 2024?
$11K34 tradersResolved
1%
Will RFK Jr. receive Secret Service protection before election day?
$10K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will Alaska vote to repeal Ranked Choice Voting by the end of 2024?
$10K30 tradersResolved
1%
Which counts will Luigi Mangione be convicted on?
$10K30 tradersopen
—
Will RCV affect the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election?
$9K14 tradersResolved
1%
Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony in the US by the end of 2024?
$7K18 tradersResolved
2%
Conditional on Trump/Biden NOT winning, who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (DERIVATIVE MARKET, READ DESC)
$6K24 tradersResolved
—
When will Deltarune Chapter 3 be released? (Cumulative market)
$6K17 tradersResolved
—
Will I emigrate from the US by the end of 2025? Will I regret emigrating or not emigrating by the end of 2026?
$6K8 tradersopen
—
Will I promote to Platinum from Silver at the end of the August season?
$5K9 tradersResolved
100%
(Ṁ200 subsidy) Will I buy a VR headset in the next 2 months? If so, will I regret it 3 months after purchase?
$5K22 tradersResolved
—
How will "What will the URL be for Manifold Politics?" resolve?
$5K4 tradersResolved
—
EU activates Trade Bazooka against the US before 2027?
$4K16 tradersopen
9%
By the end of 2024, will I stop accidentally liking markets and/or comments while using Manifold on mobile?
$4K19 tradersResolved
93%
Will there be a non-empty Bronze league in which no users promote in Season 6?
$4K5 tradersResolved
100%
Which state/territory legislature chambers will be held with a majority by the Democrats after the 2024 elections?
$4K15 tradersResolved
—
Which party will win the US Presidency in NE-1?
$3K5 tradersResolved
—
Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?
$3K22 tradersopen
13%
Is the Euler-Mascheroni constant irrational?
$3K18 tradersopen
90%
Will I promote to Masters from Diamond at the end of the October season (Season 6)?
$3K10 tradersResolved
1%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong or Deltarune Chapter 3 release first?
$3K24 tradersResolved
—
Will California independence be voted on in 2026?
$3K25 tradersopen
12%
Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony in the US by the end of 2023?
$2K13 tradersResolved
2%
Will California vote to raise the minimum wage to $18/hr? (Proposition 32)
$2K10 tradersResolved
1%
Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028?
$2K13 tradersopen
20%
Will I still be active on Manifold in 1 year?
$2K14 tradersResolved
100%
Will I promote to Diamond from Platinum at the end of the September season?
$1K13 tradersResolved
98%
Will Oregon voters approve Ranked Choice Voting in 2024?
$1K22 tradersResolved
19%
US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?
$1K22 tradersopen
23%
Will these Claude Plays Pokemon markets be fixed by Manfiold in the next 24h?
$1K4 tradersResolved
99%
Will AZ HCR2040's ballot measure (ban public money & universities supporting reducing GHG emissions & other things) pass
$1K2 tradersResolved
—
Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Venus by the end of 2034?
$94119 tradersopen
11%
Internet shut down for over 24 hours in the US during Trump's second term?
$8506 tradersopen
3%
Will a US Governor, Senator, President, or VP be in a open polyamourous relationship without scandal by the end of 2039?
$79320 tradersopen
26%