Manifold Creator
Ender Ting
@AnT
Markets by Ender Ting
Resolves YES if @acc holds NO shares in this market at close time
$19K28 tradersResolved
30%
Will there be a nuclear explosion in USA in 2025?
$19K34 tradersResolved
1%
Will at **most** 200 people place trades on this market by November 25, 2023?
$19K201 tradersResolved
1%
Will Russia attack any ship going to or from Ukraine by September 1st? [see description]
$12K65 tradersResolved
2%
Will Russian Agricultural Bank be reconnected to SWIFT before end of June '25?
$9K19 tradersResolved
2%
Will Manifold implement shares-grams by the end of 2023?
$9K21 tradersResolved
2%
Will Jeffrey Goldberg be fired from The Atlantic by the end of May 2025?
$8K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will AI-boyfriend created by me be more popular than AI-girlfriend?
$8K50 tradersResolved
93%
Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035
$7K21 tradersopen
30%
Will Manifold Dating have single sign-on with Manifold on November, 20th?
$7K44 tradersResolved
2%
Will I manage group for improvement of Wikipedia rationality-related articles?
$5K6 tradersResolved
12%
Will Manifold create a corporate blog on Habr?
$4K12 tradersResolved
5%
By end of 2026, will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court?
$4K22 tradersopen
5%
Russian presidential election 2024 outcome (resolves proportionally to votes)
$4K24 tradersResolved
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Will faucet.trade be banned from Manifold's discord server?
$4K15 tradersResolved
1%
Can quantum computer check isomorphism of graphs in the described way?
$4K10 tradersopen
3%
What will @acc's minimal balance be during August, 2023?
$4K5 tradersResolved
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What will @acc's minimal balance be during September, 2023?
$3K9 tradersResolved
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Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
$3K10 tradersopen
40%
Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?
$2K13 tradersopen
41%
Will Sundar Pichai be convicted by the end of 2025 due to Google allowing ads which violate federal law?
$2K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will quality drop in DavidAU/UNA-dolphin-2.6-mistral-7b-dpo-laser-Q6_K-GGUF at 10K tokens be replicated?
$2K8 tradersResolved
19%
Will <a specific meme> from our students group be displayed in uni's channel by close date?
$2K1 tradersResolved
88%
ZK tool for demonstrating one has proved math theorem (in Lean) created by EOY2026?
$2K9 tradersopen
25%
Any of trustworthy users resigns by Feb 1, 2024? [after Mira]
$2K11 tradersResolved
98%
Will there be a platinum division with no person having negative "mana earned"?
$2K22 tradersResolved
23%
Codebuff solves at least 40% of issues on SWE-Bench by March 31, 2025
$1K5 tradersResolved
18%
Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
$1K18 tradersopen
30%
Will Manifold deem @NathanpmYoung unworthy of a "Moderator" badge by the end of 2023?
$1K5 tradersResolved
1%
Will banana prices in 🇷🇺 rise more than 30% in next 3 months?
$1K20 tradersResolved
5%
Will Manifold get at least 2,300 DAUs on October, 24th if it gets a Telegram channel?
$1K7 tradersResolved
2%
Manifold Dating platform uses auctions → Stripe threatens to stop processing Manifold payments by April 2024
$1K14 tradersResolved
4%
Will Manifold announce a tax on blocking users by the end of 2023?
$1K18 tradersResolved
2%
Will DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas have to pay a compensation over US border security issue?
$1K10 tradersResolved
2%
Will I have 14 open markets with >= 14 traders each some time until September?
$1K7 tradersResolved
1%
What will be the maximal number of trustworthy users in a single division of season 6?
$1K7 tradersResolved
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What will @acc's minimal balance be during October, 2023?
$1K4 tradersResolved
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Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?
$1K9 tradersopen
23%
Will my wallet contract `inplug-v2` contain bugs which can lead to loss of TON?
$9845 tradersResolved
2%
How much will LW posts about Nonlinear differ in rating?
$9794 tradersResolved
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