Manifold Creator
Alice
@Alice
Markets by Alice
Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?
$1.7M997 tradersResolved
1%
Who will win The Great British Bake Off in 2023?
$73K53 tradersResolved
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Who will win Fat Bear Week in 2023?
$16K16 tradersResolved
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Will I complete at least ten sculptures in 2023?
$15K76 tradersResolved
74%
Who will win The Great British Bake Off in 2022?
$13K18 tradersResolved
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Will I learn basic first aid before an emergency happens?
$11K18 tradersResolved
100%
Now that I've reached my goal, will I maintain my fitness?
$11K32 tradersResolved
99%
Will the 2024 presidential election result be disputed?
$10K70 tradersResolved
4%
Will graphic designers think Twitter’s rebrand to X is bad, according to Brand New’s poll?
$10K130 tradersResolved
91%
Will I earn any recognition from the art world in my first year of sculpting?
$8K23 tradersResolved
99%
Will the Manifold office have a real sign by April 5?
$6K25 tradersResolved
97%
Can I become a sculptor in one year?
$6K23 tradersResolved
63%
Will I make at least one figurative sculpture in 2023?
$4K29 tradersResolved
72%
Will I summit Table Mountain the hard way?
$4K7 tradersResolved
77%
Will the president elected in 2024 complete his or her term?
$4K40 tradersopen
77%
Will I catch on fire?
$3K12 tradersResolved
2%
What swag should Manifold make?
$3K25 tradersResolved
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Should I pregame painkillers on hard hikes?
$2K13 tradersResolved
3%
Will I lead climb outdoors within one year?
$2K19 tradersResolved
56%
Will I exercise 45 minutes a day in July?
$2K10 tradersResolved
11%
Will any sculpture I make in my first year get a purchase offer?
$2K31 tradersResolved
41%
Will in vitro fertilization become illegal or totally inaccessible in any state before 2030?
$2K51 tradersopen
35%
Will anyone at Carson's party know every guest's name and the best or worst bet each person has made?
$2K20 tradersResolved
5%
Will anyone take a nap during Manifold's Officewarming?
$2K12 tradersResolved
90%
Will the office mural be complete before Manifold's Officewarming Party?
$2K10 tradersResolved
3%
Will I exercise 30 minutes a day in June?
$1K24 tradersResolved
68%
After France, will another country make abortion a constitutional right in 2024?
$1K18 tradersResolved
12%
Will any Officewarming attendees let the Manifold community edit their dating profiles?
$1K7 tradersResolved
4%
Who will be the first Manifold Monarch at the Manifold Officewarming Party?
$9656 tradersResolved
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Will Damien Hirst's "The Currency" be more valuable as an NFT than as a physical painting?
$86618 tradersopen
31%
Will I start a sculpture today?
$8169 tradersResolved
16%
If Manifold stops mana donations to charity, will five or more top traders leave?
$81120 tradersResolved
9%
Will Manifold Officewarming Party guests overthrow the Manarch?
$5049 tradersResolved
19%
Will anyone need to use the first aid kit during the Manifold Officewarming Party?
$45213 tradersResolved
9%
Will Carson’s party guests drink all the alcohol?
$4389 tradersResolved
7%
Will Roden Crater be completed in James Turrell's lifetime?
$3304 tradersopen
7%
During Manifold's Officewarming, will an interrogation happen in the interrogation room?
$31310 tradersResolved
60%
Will Manifold Officewarming guests finish all the alcohol?
$2929 tradersResolved
35%
Will at least ten guests perform the Dark Manifold Ritual during the Manifold Officewarming Party?
$27410 tradersResolved
89%
Will I receive more questions about my career or marriage prospects?
$27214 tradersResolved
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