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Alana

@Alana

Markets by Alana

Will this market get Calaveras AI a hire by EOY 2025?

$37K40 tradersResolved
7%

Will I be employed at any point in 2023?

$16K47 tradersResolved
98%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

$10K64 tradersopen
15%

Will I consider the transgender rights movement in America to have “basically won” by the end of 2025?

$8K23 tradersclosed
2%

US military intervention by Oct 31?

$6K44 tradersResolved
3%

How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)

$6K49 tradersopen
15%

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky make a tweet about the sci-fi movie M3gan before the end of 2023?

$6K25 tradersResolved
1%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is found to have performed prediction market fraud by the end of 2025

$5K28 tradersclosed
6%

Will successful cryonic reanimation of a mammal be performed before 2025?

$4K78 tradersResolved
9%

[SCOTUS] Obergefell v. Hodges overturned by EOY 2026

$4K19 tradersopen
3%

Will I be able to take a Waymo ride from Stanford campus to the South Park Blue Bottle by EOY 2024?

$4K26 tradersResolved
6%

Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models by the end of 2023

$4K24 tradersResolved
2%

By the end of 2024, will at least 1 substantive Linux kernel commit have been written entirel by a large language model?

$4K20 tradersResolved
3%

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

$3K30 tradersopen
25%

Will the NYPD call another Level Four mobilization in response to an event in NYC before EOY 2023?

$3K10 tradersResolved
2%

It is impossible to post a tweet for a span of over a week by end of 2023.

$3K23 tradersResolved
2%

Will I have a research position at MIRI by 2025?

$3K26 tradersclosed
4%

What percent of enrolled MIT students will have undergone artificial gain of intelligence at the end of 2030?

$3K35 tradersopen
6%

AUTOMATION: Less than 100 police officers are employed by the New York Police Department by the end of 2026

$3K20 tradersopen
2%

Will I be attending the Cambridge Boston Alignment Initiative’s two-week Winter ML Bootcamp in January 2023?

$2K20 tradersResolved
95%

Is Q going to EAG Boston?

$2K9 tradersResolved
99%

Will Sam Bankman-Fried accept an interview with me before June 2023

$2K22 tradersResolved
2%

[Convince Me] Will I sign up for cryonics with Alcor by the end of 2023?

$2K27 tradersResolved
5%

Will I write over 5000 lines of Rust by the end of 2023?

$2K32 tradersResolved
10%

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?

$2K13 tradersclosed
3%

Will I consider myself a full-time AI alignment researcher by the end of 2023?

$2K17 tradersResolved
92%

Will I have a research position at Anthropic (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025?

$2K20 tradersResolved
6%

Which day will be the first day I test negative for COVID-19?

$2K5 tradersResolved
—

Will I have a research position at Conjecture (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025?

$2K15 tradersclosed
6%

Will I believe COVID-19 made me (counterfactually) noticeably less capable at AI safety research?

$2K19 tradersResolved
8%

By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem?

$2K15 tradersclosed
9%

Will I hire anyone in 2023?

$1K30 tradersResolved
15%

Will I have hired a "full time life fixer" by the end of 2023?

$1K32 tradersResolved
10%

Will I be employed for at least a month in 2023?

$1K21 tradersResolved
96%

I get a trustworthy badge on Manifold before the end of 2023

$1K13 tradersResolved
3%

Will I cuddle w anyone this week

$1K4 tradersResolved
95%

Will Facebook Dating still exist by the end of 2025?

$1K12 tradersclosed
99%

By the end of 2023, what will be my deepest regret?

$1K34 tradersResolved
—

I feel strongly that I have been "canceled" at least once by the end of 2026.

$1K6 tradersopen
10%

Will there exist a largely risk-free cure for Eye Floaters by the end of 2024?

$1K14 tradersResolved
11%