Manifold Creator
AffinityForTypes
@AffineTyped
Markets by AffinityForTypes
Gemini 3 (Google) release (No Double Speak Version)
$69K70 tradersopen
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Which SF Officer will win this week's parking ticket leaderboard?
$26K66 tradersResolved
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Will an AI like Operator work faster than human comprehension by May?
$14K22 tradersResolved
1%
Claude Opus 4.6 released this week?
$6K39 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Dow hit 50k before the number of American troops in Iran does?
$5K17 tradersopen
97%
Will X (Twitter) verification require face identification by 2024?
$4K22 tradersResolved
1%
BLS pauses monthly job report by June 2026?
$3K21 tradersopen
19%
Where is John Schulman going to work next?
$3K10 tradersResolved
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What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?
$3K42 tradersopen
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Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028
$2K23 tradersopen
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Is "chocolate" in the Chatbot Arena Grok 3?
$2K11 tradersResolved
99%
OpenAI releases o3-pro this week?
$2K18 tradersResolved
99%
What will be my first name on August 1st 2025?
$2K10 tradersResolved
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Will xAI Open Source Grok 2 by August 18th
$1K19 tradersResolved
1%
What is Grok 4's performance on METR's task length evaluation?
$1K12 tradersResolved
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Will I return to my workout schedule before the end of August?
$1K15 tradersResolved
67%
Will I (@Soaffine) finish at #1 in S3 Bronze Calculated Foxes?
$1K8 tradersResolved
98%
When will Season 5: September End by 18:00 (PDT)?
$1K6 tradersResolved
97%
Serrano and Google DeepMind publish Navier-Stokes result by 2027?
$1K24 tradersopen
17%
Who will win Season 4 Gold Unerring Predictors?
$1K7 tradersResolved
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What is Grok 4 Heavy's performance on METR's task length evaluation?
$97616 tradersopen
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[Short Fuse] Who is the Bethany McLean AI Bubble Story about?
$90913 tradersResolved
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What license will the OpenAI open model be under?
$7209 tradersResolved
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Will xAI stick to their announced release timeline?
$68511 tradersResolved
2%
Tesla Robotaxi Service at-fault accident or non-fully-autonomous by 2026?
$43411 tradersopen
92%
Will TSLA stock's price be higher at close today, Wed. August 9th 2023, than it was Tue. August 8rd 2023?
$4028 tradersResolved
7%
Is Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028?
$38812 tradersopen
14%
Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?
$3366 tradersopen
40%
What blue thing was Donald Trump chewing at the U.S. Open?
$3085 tradersResolved
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By July 2025, what will be confirmed about Claude Neptune?
$2816 tradersResolved
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@Bayesian beats me in Flesh and Blood before end of 2025?
$1727 tradersResolved
21%
Open weight AI system below 100B parameters gets 5/6 on IMO 2026?
$1446 tradersopen
44%
First Thinking Machines model LM Text Arena rank?
$795 tradersopen
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I go to ACX Montreal?
$753 tradersResolved
71%
Which AI Lab trained Cypher Alpha?
$554 tradersResolved
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Will any submitted paper for ICLR 2024 be a "game changer" by 2030?
$101 tradersopen
41%
Which Lab is behind Cypher Alpha
$00 tradersResolved
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