Manifold Creator
AdamK
@AdamK
Markets by AdamK
Will OpenAI's Superalignment project produce a significant breakthrough in alignment research before 2027?
$38K163 tradersResolved
4%
[Short-fuse / hot take] Will the IMO Gold by 2025 Market be Above* 30% for a 1-month window before August 1, 2024?
$22K18 tradersResolved
3%
Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?
$20K77 tradersopen
11%
Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
$19K15 tradersopen
26%
Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?
$18K60 tradersResolved
1%
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2024?
$15K91 tradersResolved
2%
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2025?
$12K58 tradersResolved
6%
By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
$11K11 tradersopen
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Will an elected US Federal official express that "If anyone builds it, everyone dies" before 2026?
$10K28 tradersResolved
2%
Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?
$10K18 tradersResolved
2%
Will Texas experience a severe outage event before February?
$9K27 tradersResolved
1%
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2026?
$9K35 tradersResolved
3%
Compelling evidence tying the Indian State to the death of Mr. Nijjar made public before 2024
$8K29 tradersResolved
2%
By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?
$7K22 tradersopen
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Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?
$7K52 tradersopen
31%
Will Anthropic host a Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2026?
$7K21 tradersResolved
4%
Will Carl Shulman soon claim that AI forecasting systems will play an integral role in the post-AGI economy?
$7K15 tradersResolved
96%
Before 2026, a publicly available AI system highly reliably screens videos of chess games for touch move violations?
$6K16 tradersResolved
2%
Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
$6K12 tradersopen
36%
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?
$4K19 tradersopen
66%
Will Dwarkesh Patel interview a current or former US President before 2027?
$4K17 tradersopen
13%
Will Aubrey Darwin Niederhoffer become a Thiel Fellow before 2028?
$4K9 tradersResolved
66%
Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
$4K9 tradersopen
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Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
$3K26 tradersopen
21%
Dyson sphere/swarm before 2050?
$3K32 tradersopen
12%
Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?
$3K13 tradersopen
28%
Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?
$3K26 tradersopen
49%
How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?
$3K26 tradersopen
30%
Will commercial AI tutoring services become prevalent in the US by 2025?
$3K36 tradersResolved
19%
Will I get to "Feel the AGI" on the big screen before 2033?
$3K31 tradersopen
39%
How will the best AI score on the 2024 Putnam Exam? (Raw score)
$3K7 tradersclosed
41%
Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040
$3K35 tradersopen
33%
Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?
$2K19 tradersopen
17%
In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
$2K10 tradersopen
22%
Will Obama be formally associated with Anthropic before 2030?
$2K13 tradersopen
11%
Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?
$2K10 tradersResolved
11%
Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?
$2K37 tradersopen
39%
Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?
$2K23 tradersopen
15%
Will Aiden Kim be a Thiel Fellow before 2028?
$2K9 tradersopen
31%
How many views will all plzdontkillus content receive in July?
$2K6 tradersopen
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