Manifold Creator
Adam Braff
@AdamBraff
Markets by Adam Braff
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire or other cessation of hostilities before the 100th day of Trump’s term?
$12K40 tradersResolved
1%
Will Max Verstappen win his fifth consecutive World Driver's Championship?
$4K29 tradersResolved
1%
Will Luke Littler win the 2026 Premier League Darts title?
$4K7 tradersResolved
99%
Will the gold/silver price ratio be above 60 on January 26, 2026?
$4K12 tradersResolved
1%
By July 1, will the world break the current record (19) for total number of people in space simultaneously?
$4K32 tradersResolved
50%
Will the government file a market manipulation/insider trading case involving Polymarket or Kalshi by April 15?
$3K21 tradersResolved
2%
Will the @whitehouse-47 Bluesky account show more than 100 posts on March 1, 2026?
$3K3 tradersResolved
1%
Will Ukraine win at least one medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
$2K16 tradersResolved
0%
Will Pierre Poilievre become Canada’s prime minister before the conclusion of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final?
$2K13 tradersResolved
1%
Will Iran announce by June 4 that it has developed a nuclear weapons capability?
$2K21 tradersResolved
1%
Will Wet Leg win at least one award at the 2026 Grammys?
$2K5 tradersResolved
2%
Will at least two Trump cabinet members leave office between Jan 20 and June 30, 2026?
$2K14 tradersResolved
92%
Will Noam Chomsky outlive (in the sense of survive for some time) Dick Van Dyke by December 7?
$2K16 tradersResolved
1%
Will “Wicked: For Good" have a critics’ score of over 90% on Rotten Tomatoes on November 22?
$1K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be an earthquake of at least 8.0 magnitude by July 15?
$1K13 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Beatles win more 2025 Grammys than Jimmy Carter?
$1K6 tradersResolved
4%
Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?
$1K10 tradersopen
16%
Will Tesla globally deliver more vehicles in the first half of 2025 than it did in the first half of 2024?
$1K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will Magnus Carlsen be the world’s top-ranked chess player on November 30?
$1K11 tradersResolved
99%
Will Kylie Jenner get engaged to or break up with Timothée Chalamet before August 10?
$93613 tradersResolved
1%
Will the 2026 Academy Award for Best Picture go to a film produced by any of Netflix, Amazon, or Apple?
$8705 tradersResolved
8%
Will at least three countries’ broadcasters formally oppose Israel’s participation in the Eurovision Song Competition?
$81015 tradersResolved
30%
Will Elon Musk suspend or resign from his Department of Government Efficiency role by October 15?
$69816 tradersResolved
94%
Will at least one Ivy League university have a new permanent president start work before Sept 7, 2026?
$5034 tradersopen
87%
Will at least one 2026 FIFA World Cup host nation reach the quarterfinals?
$49123 tradersopen
40%
Will China National Nuclear Corp announce commercial operation of the Linglong One reactor by April 1?
$4798 tradersResolved
16%
Will the Chicago White Sox break their own MLB record for losses in a season?
$4407 tradersResolved
3%
Will the Greenlandic Parliament pass a resolution by November 15 to schedule a national independence referendum?
$3339 tradersopen
20%
Will a Chinese AI model rank in the top 10 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on August 1?
$31515 tradersopen
72%
By September 4, will New York City announce a systemwide public school cellphone ban?
$2814 tradersResolved
22%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
$2819 tradersopen
42%
Will Republicans maintain control of the US Senate following the 2026 midterm elections?
$25317 tradersopen
54%
Will the CDC mortality report state that more US deaths from cancer occurred in 2025 than in 2024?
$2184 tradersopen
72%
Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?
$2157 tradersopen
72%
Will a Forbes 30 Under 30 winner of any vintage be arrested before June 1?
$2053 tradersResolved
21%
Will the FBI report that US hate crimes in 2024 were up over 2023?
$1476 tradersResolved
40%
Will the CDC report more US measles cases in Q1 of 2025 than in Q1 of 2024?
$1465 tradersResolved
85%
Will at least 9 of the 10 largest global companies by market cap on January 13 will be in the top 10 on March 31?
$1453 tradersResolved
86%
Will the Guttmacher Institute report that the number of US abortions in 2024 increased over 2023?
$1453 tradersResolved
86%
Will Dan Ariely be employed as a tenured professor at Duke University at the end of 2026?
$1407 tradersopen
80%