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Manifold Creator

Adam

@Adam

Markets by Adam

Will this market have M$10,000 invested in it before March 31st?

$14K15 tradersResolved
96%

Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Call* problem right?

$6K34 tradersResolved
98%

Will France score one or more goals in the 2022 World Cup Final?

$5K15 tradersResolved
99%

Will Tianna Wheeler resolve the World Cup DPM market unfaithfully?

$4K4 tradersResolved
0%

Will Vladimir Putin be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year 2022?

$3K28 tradersResolved
1%

Is Manifold mostly a bunch of white guys?

$2K37 tradersResolved
73%

Will the Manifold discord still have a bot feed of reports visible to regular users on July 1 2023?

$2K13 tradersResolved
98%

Will I steal your money?

$1K4 tradersResolved
50%

Will the price of PLEX on 12/31/2023 be above 4.75M ISK?

$8234 tradersResolved
98%

Will Elon Musk attempt to utilize "The Walrus" on Mark Zuckerberg in 2023?

$6509 tradersResolved
4%

Should Manifold not list some charities? [MKT]

$43413 tradersResolved
69%

Will an Al win the Nobel Peace Prize by December 31st, 2023?

$3858 tradersResolved
15%

This market will resolve as PROB 50:50

$3848 tradersResolved
50%

Will the Phillies defeat the Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS (Oct 12 AKA today)?

$3826 tradersResolved
40%

Which countries will have a lower annual GDP per capita than Guyana in any year before 2050

$3272 tradersopen
—

test market

$2501 tradersResolved
97%

Will I receive 900 feet of film ordered from Novosibirsk, Russia before July 1st 2022?

$2298 tradersResolved
57%

How did Lil Tay die?

$2285 tradersResolved
—

Which Charity will receive the most M$ donations through 5/31?

$2256 tradersResolved
—

According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way that a bee should be able to fly. [...]

$21911 tradersResolved
55%

If Manifold didn't eliminate all trading fees, how much does trading increase month over month?

$1783 tradersResolved
—

Will a discord bot still report when anybody buys mana at the end of 2022?

$1754 tradersResolved
93%

How much M$ will each Charity receive by 5/31? (Resolve-to-PROB)

$1612 tradersResolved
—

Which Eve Online alliance will control the most systems at the end of 2023?

$1404 tradersResolved
—

What percentage of his $340m claim will John Cheeks win from Powerball?

$1345 tradersResolved
16%

Which EVE Online alliance will have the most members at the end of 2023?

$1322 tradersResolved
—

Will the Dodgers defeat the Padres in Game 2 of the NLDS (Oct 12, AKA Today)?

$1324 tradersResolved
64%

Will someone say the name of the (TV) movie in "Mr. Monk's Last Case"?

$1177 tradersResolved
30%

Will Goonswarm be kicked out of Delve in 2023?

$1155 tradersResolved
14%

Will Tupac still be alive in Serbia on January 1, 2023?

$1102 tradersResolved
95%

how will I resolve this question?

$1011 tradersResolved
—

will I regret using the free daily market trick?

$1011 tradersResolved
—

which answer to this question will most efficiently transfer "free market" liquidity to me?

$1011 tradersResolved
—

is this still free money?

$1011 tradersResolved
—

“According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way that a bee should be able to fly. Its wings are too small to get its fat little body off the ground. The bee, of course, flies anyways. Because bees don't care what humans think is impossible.”

$1001 tradersResolved
50%

Will the administrators of Manifold Markets delete my market with an exceptionally long question before March 13th?

$1001 tradersResolved
95%

Will my avatar still be a 15 megapixel jpg on April 1st, 2022?

$974 tradersResolved
23%

Will Austin regret letting users create markets for free

$887 tradersResolved
13%

Will the Phillies defeat the Braves in game 3 of the NLDS?

$814 tradersResolved
46%

Will the S&P 500 close with at an even number of cents on February 16th, 2022?

$723 tradersResolved
50%