Manifold Creator
Aaron Simansky
@AaronSimansky
Markets by Aaron Simansky
What will happen within Donald Trump's first 100 days? [Add Answers] (Please ensure you read rules)
$185K293 tradersResolved
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Who will accept a presidential pardon before Joe Biden leaves office? [Add Answers]
$75K66 tradersResolved
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Who will be the next person elected Speaker of the House of Representatives? [Add Answers]
$74K92 tradersResolved
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How many ballots will it take to elect the next Speaker of the House?
$52K26 tradersResolved
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Multiple ballots needed to elect the first Speaker of 119th Congress in January 2025?
$52K19 tradersResolved
1%
What will the margin of victory (in votes) be in the state where the top two candidates are the closest?
$46K56 tradersResolved
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Who will be nominated to the next president's cabinet? [Add Answers]
$40K121 tradersResolved
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Which of the following people, if nominated, will be confirmed by the Senate? [Add Answers]
$40K53 tradersResolved
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When will the Government shutdown end?
$38K50 tradersResolved
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Which one of week 8's NFL games will have the rarest score?
$36K7 tradersResolved
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Which one of week 7's NFL games will have the rarest score?
$34K5 tradersResolved
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Government shuts down this year?
$33K55 tradersResolved
2%
Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?
$28K31 tradersopen
10%
Who will win Survivor 48?
$26K27 tradersResolved
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Will September 2024 be the hottest September ever? [NCEI]
$26K68 tradersResolved
2%
Will June 2025 be the hottest June ever? [NCEI]
$25K20 tradersResolved
1%
Will October 2024 be the hottest October ever? [NCEI]
$23K49 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be the winner of Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans?
$21K10 tradersResolved
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Will Donald Trump be on a major presidential ticket in 2028?
$18K45 tradersopen
3%
Will March 2025 be the hottest March ever? [NCEI]
$18K23 tradersResolved
3%
Will January 2025 be the hottest January ever? [NCEI]
$17K35 tradersResolved
99%
Who will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]
$17K102 tradersopen
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Pete Buttigieg announces Michigan gubernatorial run before September 1, 2025?
$17K20 tradersResolved
1%
Will any NFL game end in a tie this regular season (2024-25)?
$17K21 tradersResolved
1%
Which NFL Playoff game will have the rarest score?
$16K11 tradersResolved
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Will May 2025 be the hottest May ever? [NCEI]
$16K22 tradersResolved
1%
What team will win Marble League 2025?
$15K7 tradersResolved
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Will July 2025 be the hottest July ever? [NCEI]
$15K18 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be the next Solicitor General of the United States?
$14K13 tradersResolved
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Will the Supreme Court find that Tennessee's SB1 (ban on transgender health care for minors) is constitutional?
$14K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will more than 2 names be placed into nomination in any ballot for the first Speakership election of the 119th Congress?
$13K5 tradersResolved
6%
Who will run for the 2028 Republican nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]
$13K49 tradersopen
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Will Tesla reveal a low-cost car before 2025?
$13K73 tradersResolved
89%
How many NFL postseason games will go into overtime?
$12K14 tradersResolved
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When, if ever, will Donald Trump be impeached?
$12K47 tradersopen
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Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before July 1, 2025?
$12K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2025?
$12K20 tradersResolved
99%
Location of Brian Thompson's alleged killer's arrest? [Add Answers]
$12K21 tradersResolved
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Will April 2025 be the hottest April ever? [NCEI]
$12K10 tradersResolved
1%
Will both general election candidates in the race for the governor of California be Republicans?
$12K11 tradersResolved
1%