Manifold Creator
A
@A
Markets by A
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
$21K33 tradersopen
—
Will Twitter have a login wall on July 10?
$20K45 tradersResolved
99%
Will any country attack the continental United States in 2025?
$10K37 tradersResolved
2%
Will DesTiny run the auction theory markets honorably?
$7K33 tradersResolved
99%
Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026?
$5K48 tradersopen
24%
Will Twitter have a login wall on August 28?
$4K12 tradersResolved
100%
When will I receive my Framework 16 laptop? (Batch 3)
$4K7 tradersResolved
—
Will someone post a joke in the comments that makes me laugh?
$3K24 tradersResolved
18%
If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?
$2K27 tradersopen
48%
Will Twitter (X) have a login wall on January 15, 2024?
$2K12 tradersResolved
0%
Will I successfully undo the linked market's resolution?
$1K7 tradersResolved
3%
If we discover time travel, what kind will it be?
$1K31 tradersopen
—
Yes versus No: Experimental resolution by proof of work
$1K17 tradersResolved
23%
Will the FairlyRandom group contain at least 300 markets at the end of 2023?
$9155 tradersResolved
2%
Will market B get more traders than market A?
$75819 tradersResolved
92%
Will Twitter (X) require login to view the latest tweets? (on April 1, 2024)
$7287 tradersResolved
97%
Which team will roll higher on a 100-sided FairlyRandom die by EOY 2022?
$6648 tradersResolved
97%
Will I have at least M1000 profit from Mira's arbitrage bot at the end of August 2023?
$5824 tradersResolved
15%
Will market A get more traders than market B?
$47412 tradersResolved
10%
Will I have a net YES position at close of Trump Mega Millions day 6?
$4214 tradersResolved
96%
Will anybody successfully prompt inject GPT-P?
$3157 tradersResolved
9%
Will my Southwest flight on January 2nd be cancelled?
$23811 tradersResolved
20%
Test market 5
$2102 tradersResolved
90%
Will my proposed American Airlines flight on January 2nd be cancelled?
$1756 tradersResolved
11%
Will Manifold allow market creators to easily undo incorrect resolutions?
$1578 tradersResolved
28%
Will Biden's approval rating be higher than -14.3 at end of August? (possibly self-resolving, see description)
$1076 tradersResolved
79%
Test market 3
$1001 tradersResolved
90%
How valuable are listed profits compared to unlisted profits?
$9810 tradersResolved
50%
Test market 23
$602 tradersResolved
36%
Test market 6
$00 tradersResolved
50%
Test market 2
$00 tradersResolved
50%
Test market 11
$00 tradersResolved
50%
Test market 14
$00 tradersResolved
50%
Test market 12
$00 tradersResolved
50%
Test market 13
$00 tradersResolved
50%