Manifold Creator

Fold Habits Die Hard

@4fa

Markets by Fold Habits Die Hard

Do you like 95% odds?

$68K116 tradersResolved
95%

How many views will 3Blue1Brown's "How might LLMs store facts | Chapter 7, Deep Learning" video have after 1 month?

$39K46 tradersResolved

Do you like 24% odds?

$23K26 tradersResolved
24%

Add answers: What will be the first digit of the number of electoral votes that Trump* will win in 2024?

$18K51 tradersResolved

Open answer: How many electoral votes will the Democratic presidential candidate win in 2024?

$13K29 tradersResolved

Open answer: How many electoral votes will Trump* win in 2024?

$12K56 tradersResolved

Do you like 4% odds?

$12K22 tradersResolved
4%

Do you like 92% odds?

$8K37 tradersResolved
91%

Do you like 28% odds?

$8K47 tradersResolved
28%

Do you like 8% odds?

$7K25 tradersResolved
9%

🗓 For which X will this market get X^2 traders after X weeks?

$6K19 tradersResolved

Open Answer: What will be the (absolute) Electoral College margin in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

$6K21 tradersResolved

Do you like 52% odds?

$6K40 tradersResolved
51%

Swiss popular vote on 22.09.24: Biodiversity Initiative

$5K2 tradersResolved

Do you like 5% odds?

$5K40 tradersResolved
5%

Will this question get 1000 traders in 1000 days?

$5K51 tradersopen

Do you like 96% odds?

$5K22 tradersResolved
96%

On which days in 2026 will Donald Trump be alive?

$5K35 tradersopen

On which days in 2025 will Donald Trump be alive?

$5K37 tradersResolved

Do you like 72% odds?

$4K28 tradersResolved
72%

🏈 Los Angeles Chargers : Kansas City Chiefs (September 5, 2025)

$3K17 tradersResolved

Short fuse: For which X will this market get X^2 traders after X days?

$3K17 tradersResolved

Changing Odds: Drawing 5 numbers on 4 days, on which day will the median be drawn?

$2K10 tradersResolved

How often will 6d6 roll a number greater than or equal to this market's expected value at close?

$2K18 tradersResolved

For which N will this market get N^2 traders after N months?

$2K16 tradersResolved

Biased Coin Flip

$2K32 tradersResolved
74%

Do you like 16% odds?

$2K22 tradersResolved
16%

How much longer to reach 20 traders compared to 10?

$2K20 tradersResolved

Do you like 10% odds?

$2K26 tradersResolved
9%

Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys (September 4, 2025)

$2K25 tradersResolved

How many views will 3Blue1Brown's topology video reach by January 29, 2025?

$2K19 tradersResolved

▶️ How many views will 3Blue1Brown's "colliding blocks that compute pi" video have in three weeks (21 April)?

$2K16 tradersResolved

How many views will 3Blue1Brown's video "How are holograms possible? | Optics puzzles 5" have after 4 weeks?

$2K11 tradersResolved

MrBeast subscriber milestones until Jan 1, 2026, 8 p.m. UTC?

$2K9 tradersResolved

How many views will 3Blue1Brown's video "Why 4D Geometry Makes Me Sad" have at the end of November?

$2K12 tradersResolved

Is the shrinking cut-off in Diamond League fully intentional? 🎖 💎 💿

$2K24 tradersResolved
9%

Dairy Coin Flip

$2K24 tradersResolved

How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025?

$2K14 tradersResolved

▶️ How many views will 3Blue1Brown's second video with Terence Tao, Distance Ladder Part 2, have in one month (3 April)?

$2K13 tradersResolved

Which Roman numerals will the next pope's papal name contain?

$1K21 tradersResolved