Manifold Creator
CuriousNoob
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Markets by CuriousNoob
Will Gemini achieve a score above 90% on the MATH benchmark?
$5K20 tradersResolved
92%
Will Google Deepmind reveal their own autonomous agent in 2024?
$3K25 tradersResolved
25%
Will Gemini achieve a score above 90% on the MMLU benchmark?
$3K21 tradersResolved
96%
Will OpenAI's next-gen math-focused model score at least 95% on the MATH benchmark?
$2K27 tradersResolved
78%
Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?
$2K26 tradersopen
34%
Will OpenAI release next-generation models with varying capabilities and sizes?
$95515 tradersResolved
91%
Will OpenAI's next-generation model score 65% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
$80313 tradersResolved
79%
Will ARC evaluate Gemini?
$57311 tradersResolved
85%
Will GPT-5 be capable of achieving superhuman performance in at least one exam that is typically taken by humans?
$3399 tradersopen
91%
Will Google Deepmind's autonomous agent be based on Gemini?
$29715 tradersResolved
75%
Will OpenAI's next foundation model score at least 75% in MMMU?
$864 tradersResolved
58%