technologyai
Military action against Iran ends on...?
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (22)
Military action through March 31active
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
$725K vol · $78K liq
March 31active
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?
$419K vol · $22K liq
March 28resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?
$349K vol · $0 liq
March 27resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026?
$340K vol · $0 liq
March 29resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026?
$338K vol · $0 liq
March 26resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026?
$326K vol · $0 liq
March 30active
Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026?
$294K vol · $19K liq
March 14resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 14, 2026?
$133K vol · $0 liq
March 18resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 18, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 25resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 25, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 15resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 15, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 19resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 19, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 22resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 22, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 11resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 11, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 23resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 23, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 16resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 16, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 12resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 12, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 17resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 17, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 20resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 21resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 21, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 24resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 13resolved
Military action against Iran ends on March 13, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
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