technologyai
Military action against Iran ends by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (25)
March 31resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?
$121K vol · $0 liq
April 15active
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
$90K vol · $10K liq
April 30active
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
$59K vol · $11K liq
March 29resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 29, 2026?
$43K vol · $0 liq
May 31active
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?
$26K vol · $10K liq
March 30resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?
$26K vol · $0 liq
June 30active
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?
$25K vol · $10K liq
March 28resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?
$24K vol · $0 liq
March 26resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 26, 2026?
$20K vol · $0 liq
March 27resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 27, 2026?
$15K vol · $0 liq
March 21resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 21, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 25resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 14resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 14, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 18resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 18, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 22resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 13resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 13, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 16resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 16, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 20resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 20, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 24resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 24, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 11resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 11, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 15resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 15, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 19resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 19, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 23resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 12resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 12, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
March 17resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 17, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
Open in Terminal →