0xd8f6eb...e92c1e

Smart Score

Win Rate

60.0%

Total P&L

+$17

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.76

Sortino Ratio

2.17

Max Drawdown

599.8%

ROI

5.7%

Profit Factor

1.35

Kelly Fraction

0.155

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

022.3/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	15.8¢	63.291	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	73.0¢	13.699	Mar 2
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	BUY	29.0¢	17.241	Mar 2
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	16.9¢	59.172	Mar 2
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	BUY	29.4¢	33.988	Mar 2
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1?	BUY	16.0¢	62.5	Feb 28
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1?	BUY	15.0¢	66.667	Feb 28
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1?	BUY	15.0¢	66.667	Feb 28
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	55.0¢	18.182	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	0.2¢	12.34	Feb 28
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	50.0¢	10	Feb 28
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?	BUY	21.0¢	23.81	Feb 28
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?	BUY	21.0¢	23.81	Feb 28
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?	BUY	20.8¢	24.069	Feb 28
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?	BUY	20.0¢	25	Feb 28
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?	BUY	19.8¢	25.283	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	78.0¢	58.82	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	BUY	64.0¢	7.813	Feb 27
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	17.0¢	58.824	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	BUY	86.0¢	5.814	Feb 26

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing22.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.23

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)20.3%

Win Consistency52.2%

Profit Factor0.58

Drawdown Resilience0.47

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.47

Weekly Sharpe est.0.36

Trading Activity43 trades · 8 active days

P&L Calendar

$1791d profit7d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

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