0x96655c...2159d2

Smart Score

Win Rate

36.4%

Total P&L

-$6

Trade Count

188

Sharpe Ratio

2.35

Sortino Ratio

6.29

Max Drawdown

380.9%

ROI

-0.6%

Profit Factor

0.62

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

023.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	60.0¢	8.333	Mar 5
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	BUY	39.0¢	11.897	Mar 4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	BUY	39.0¢	12.821	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	BUY	85.0¢	5.882	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	34.0¢	14.706	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	34.0¢	14.706	Mar 4
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 14, 2026?	BUY	95.0¢	5.263	Mar 4
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	BUY	89.0¢	5.618	Mar 4
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?	BUY	93.0¢	5.376	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	77.9¢	6.418	Mar 4
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?	SELL	81.0¢	54.45	Mar 4
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?	BUY	61.0¢	8.197	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?	BUY	1.0¢	500	Mar 4
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?	BUY	84.0¢	5.952	Mar 4
Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Press Briefing?	BUY	84.8¢	5.896	Mar 4
Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Press Briefing?	BUY	86.6¢	5.774	Mar 4
Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Press Briefing?	BUY	85.6¢	5.841	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY	53.0¢	9.434	Mar 4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	BUY	40.0¢	12.5	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	BUY	65.0¢	7.692	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing23.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.28

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)21.1%

Win Consistency44.1%

Profit Factor0.60

Drawdown Resilience0.49

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.49

Weekly Sharpe est.0.37

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