What is the probability for "Will WMT flight 3690 from Tel Aviv-Yafo to Iasi on 2023-09-22 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay = 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will WMT flight 3690 from Tel Aviv-Yafo to Iasi on 2023-09-22 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 2% with 11 traders and $2K in volume.

Will WMT flight 3690 from Tel Aviv-Yafo to Iasi on 2023-09-22 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

Resolution