What is the probability for "Will we send special forces to Taiwan (and acknowledge that we have done so - either inadvertently or not) at some point before the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will we send special forces to Taiwan (and acknowledge that we have done so - either inadvertently or not)  at some point before the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 98% with 4 traders and $1K in volume.

Will we send special forces to Taiwan (and acknowledge that we have done so - either inadvertently or not) at some point before the end of 2023?

Resolution