What is the probability for "Will W9A flight 5730 from Istanbul to London on 2023-09-24 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay = 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will W9A flight 5730 from Istanbul to London on 2023-09-24 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 4% with 10 traders and $1K in volume.

Will W9A flight 5730 from Istanbul to London on 2023-09-24 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

Resolution