What is the probability for "Will Valve announce Half-Life 3, Portal 3, Left 4 Dead 3, or Team Fortress 3 during Not-E3? [Before June 13th]" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 1% with 16 traders and $9K in volume.

Will Valve announce Half-Life 3, Portal 3, Left 4 Dead 3, or Team Fortress 3 during Not-E3? [Before June 13th]

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