What is the probability for "Will UA flight 737 from Seattle to San Francisco on 2023-10-03 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay = 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will UA flight 737 from Seattle to San Francisco on 2023-10-03 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 99% with 9 traders and $1K in volume.

Will UA flight 737 from Seattle to San Francisco on 2023-10-03 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

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