What is the probability for "Will UA flight 2618 from Philadelphia to Chicago on 2023-09-14 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay = 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will UA flight 2618 from Philadelphia to Chicago on 2023-09-14 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 94% with 3 traders and $11 in volume.

Will UA flight 2618 from Philadelphia to Chicago on 2023-09-14 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

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