What is the probability for "Will this 1985 Rolex watch sell for $1 million (USD) at its upcoming Phillips auction? (pic included)" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will this 1985 Rolex watch sell for >$1 million (USD) at its upcoming Phillips auction? (pic included)" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 99% with 11 traders and $3K in volume.

Will this 1985 Rolex watch sell for >$1 million (USD) at its upcoming Phillips auction? (pic included)