What is the probability for "Will this '07 pinot noir from Domaine de la Romanée-Conti sell for $40,000 at its Christie's auction? (fancy wine)" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will this '07 pinot noir from Domaine de la Romanée-Conti sell for >$40,000 at its Christie's auction? (fancy wine)" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 1% with 4 traders and $1K in volume.

Will this '07 pinot noir from Domaine de la Romanée-Conti sell for >$40,000 at its Christie's auction? (fancy wine)

Resolution