What is the probability for "Will there be an Earthquake greater than 5.5 in California before the end of the year?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will there be an Earthquake greater than 5.5  in California before the end of the year?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 2% with 7 traders and $1K in volume.

Will there be an Earthquake greater than 5.5 in California before the end of the year?