What is the probability for "Will there be a planecrash tag in which a character other than Carissa or Keltham says or does something by October 10?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will  there be a planecrash tag in which a character other than Carissa or Keltham says or does something by October 10?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 4% with 25 traders and $2K in volume.

Will there be a planecrash tag in which a character other than Carissa or Keltham says or does something by October 10?

Resolution