What is the probability for "Will there be 400 COVID-19 paper retractions by the end of 2022, as reported by Retraction Watch?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will there be >400 COVID-19 paper retractions by the end of 2022, as reported by Retraction Watch?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 2% with 17 traders and $2K in volume.

Will there be >400 COVID-19 paper retractions by the end of 2022, as reported by Retraction Watch?