What is the probability for "Will there be =500.000 people at the new years celebration in Berlin this Evening?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will there be >=500.000 people at the new years celebration in Berlin this Evening?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 6% with 3 traders and $932 in volume.

Will there be >=500.000 people at the new years celebration in Berlin this Evening?