What is the probability for "Will the word TRANCHE (or TRAUNCHE) appear in at least 2 above-the-fold publications not referencing you-know-who or any of his markets by the end of April 15?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 68% with 18 traders and $4K in volume.

Will the word TRANCHE (or TRAUNCHE) appear in at least 2 above-the-fold publications not referencing you-know-who or any of his markets by the end of April 15?

Resolution