What is the probability for "Will the "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation..." pre-print be retracted from arxiv by the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 1% with 46 traders and $10K in volume.

Will the "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation..." pre-print be retracted from arxiv by the end of 2023?

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