What is the probability for "Will the S&PP 500 stock index close higher on Aug 12 than it closed on Aug 9?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will the  S&PP 500 stock index close higher on Aug 12 than it closed on Aug 9?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 93% with 14 traders and $4K in volume.

Will the S&PP 500 stock index close higher on Aug 12 than it closed on Aug 9?