What is the probability for "Will the S&P stock index close more than 12.5 percent higher for 2024 than it closed at the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will the S&P stock index close more than 12.5  percent higher for 2024 than it closed at the  end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 98% with 9 traders and $9K in volume.

Will the S&P stock index close more than 12.5 percent higher for 2024 than it closed at the end of 2023?