What is the probability for "Will the « Righteous Judges » panel from the Ghent Altarpiece by the van Eyck brothers be found by the end of 2025 ?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will the « Righteous Judges » panel from the Ghent Altarpiece by the van Eyck brothers be found by the end of 2025 ?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 14% with 4 traders and $94 in volume.