What is the probability for "Will the next =5% single day change in the S&P 500 be an increase?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will the next >=5% single day change in the S&P 500 be an increase?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 23% with 18 traders and $1K in volume.

Will the next >=5% single day change in the S&P 500 be an increase?