What is the probability for "Will the next =1% single day change in the S&P 500 be an increase?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will the next >=1% single day change in the S&P 500 be an increase?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 96% with 9 traders and $1K in volume.

Will the next >=1% single day change in the S&P 500 be an increase?