What is the probability for "Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(misalignment x-risk|AGI)

The current market probability is 1% with 12 traders and $3K in volume.

Question

What is the probability for "Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(misalignment x-risk|AGI) < 7%?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 1% with 12 traders and $3K in volume.

Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(misalignment x-risk|AGI) < 7%?