What is the probability for "Will the average of polls FiveThirtyEight for the Iowa Caucus have Trump =50%?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will the average of polls FiveThirtyEight for the Iowa Caucus have Trump >=50%?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 61% with 0 traders and $13 in volume.

Will the average of polls FiveThirtyEight for the Iowa Caucus have Trump >=50%?