What is the probability for "Will SU flight 1860 from Moscow to Yerevan on 2023-08-29 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay = 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will SU flight 1860 from Moscow to Yerevan on 2023-08-29 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 97% with 9 traders and $514 in volume.

Will SU flight 1860 from Moscow to Yerevan on 2023-08-29 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

Resolution