What is the probability for "Will Russia hit Kiev with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in 2024?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will Russia hit Kiev with an  intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in 2024?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 4% with 26 traders and $3K in volume.

Will Russia hit Kiev with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in 2024?