What is the probability for "Will RFK Junior reach 5 percent of the national Popular Vote? Current 538 polling average is 10.1 percent." on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will RFK Junior reach 5 percent of the national Popular Vote? Current 538  polling average is 10.1 percent." on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 1% with 48 traders and $21K in volume.

Will RFK Junior reach 5 percent of the national Popular Vote? Current 538 polling average is 10.1 percent.

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