What is the probability for "Will November 2024 will be the warmest month of November ever recorded (worldwide) ?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will November 2024 will be the warmest month of November ever recorded  (worldwide) ?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 2% with 12 traders and $2K in volume.

Will November 2024 will be the warmest month of November ever recorded (worldwide) ?