What is the probability for "Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving 100m viewers by the start of 2030?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 43% with 3 traders and $23 in volume.