What is the probability for "Will Nagorno-Karabakh secede from Azerbaijan under a claim of self-determination and declare formal alliance with Armenia by the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 4% with 28 traders and $3K in volume.

Will Nagorno-Karabakh secede from Azerbaijan under a claim of self-determination and declare formal alliance with Armenia by the end of 2023?

Resolution