What is the probability for "Will Mike Lustgarten start to regularly ANY of {rapamycin, metformin, acarbose, SGLT2 inhibitors) by the end of 2027?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will Mike Lustgarten start to regularly  ANY of {rapamycin, metformin, acarbose, SGLT2 inhibitors) by the end of 2027?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 58% with 5 traders and $43 in volume.