What is the probability for "Will Marcus Abramovitch lose one of his current 50k mana position before 2025?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will Marcus Abramovitch lose one of his current >50k mana position before 2025?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 15% with 6 traders and $186 in volume.

Will Marcus Abramovitch lose one of his current >50k mana position before 2025?